The only question on everyone’s minds as the Patriots prepare to go to work a week early in January is this: How did we get here?
The Patriots have not had to play in the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs since the 2009-2010 season, when they got hammered by the Baltimore Ravens. For the next nine seasons, the Pats had that first Saturday of the NFL playoffs off, free to lick the wounds of the past 17 weeks, and to do some self-scouting until they knew who they were going to play.
Having that bye certainly helped them. Five times in those nine seasons, they reached the Super Bowl, winning three titles. The last time the team did not make the AFC championship game was 2010-11, when — after securing home-field advantage with the best regular-season record, they lost to Rex Ryan and the New York Jets, 28-21, in the divisional round.
So in many ways, the Patriots will be in uncharted waters Saturday, first in playing a do-or-die game this early in the playoff season for the first time in 10 years; and also, and perhaps more important, this is the first time Tom Brady will play a game knowing it might be his last-ever as a Patriot (his contract status is uncertain beyond this season).
So how did it happen? How did the Patriots fritter away what would appear to be their birthright after starting the season at 8-0?
It’s not that complicated, really.
Let’s start with the obvious Brady is 42 years old. In sports, 42 is old, and it doesn’t matter what you do to try to stay ahead of advancing age. Your reflexes slow down, in the beginning imperceptibly, but eventually significantly. At age 42, you can do things in August and September that you won’t do quite as well in November and December. His supporters (apologists?) can talk all they want about the lack of weapons (and that’s a part of it) but a lot of his passes this season, especially in the Miami game last Sunday, were simply off-target. This isn’t to say he won’t cut the Tennessee Titans up like a surgeon Saturday, but it’s obvious he needs help if the Patriots are going to win consistently.
Which leads us to point No. 2. Nobody else on the offense, except for Julian Edelman, stepped up. The wide receivers were disappointing, and maybe that’s because Brady was too quick to dismiss them as incompetent. But whatever the reason, there were issues.
The running game was slow to take off, and that’s a direct result of losing Rob Gronkowski’s blocking (not to mention his overall value to the offense), as well as that of fullback James Develin — the season’s most significant injury. Develin has been a devastating run-blocker who helped make the Patriots into a very good ground-and-pound team last season. Elandon Roberts, a converted linebacker, seems to be more comfortable in that role as we enter the playoffs, so perhaps the running game can be a factor.
Injuries played their part. Edelman was pretty beaten up by Week 17, and not having this bye does him no favors. Brady could have used a week to rest his elbow. The offensive line, a concern all season, suffered from the loss of center David Andrews. And let’s not even get into the kicking woes, where there was a turnstile at the position all season.
As the offensive problems got worse, the defense was asked to win games all by itself. You cannot do that. You cannot ask your defense to play the majority of snaps in a game and expect it to be fresh in the end. Last Sunday, the Dolphins held the ball for 33:51 minutes, the Patriots 26:09. And people wonder why the defense wilted with the game on the line.
Finally, there was hubris. Coach Bill Belichick thought he had outsmarted everyone by picking up volatile wide receiver Antonio Brown. He traded DeMarius Thomas to the Jets because there was such a surplus of receivers.
Then, the Brown situation blew up, and the Patriots had to let him go. To further complicate things, Josh Gordon got hurt and Belichick ultimately released him. At year’s end, Gordon, once again, had been suspended; and Brady had no one reliable to throw to — at least in his eyes.
There are a couple of schools of thought going forward. One is that the loss to the Dolphins was a reality slap and that the Patriots will learn their lessons and get down to business. That would be nice, but somewhat unrealistic. The other, more prevalent, is that this year’s team simply doesn’t have it. I’m more inclined to go with that one.
I think they’ll have enough to overcome Tennessee at home. Their institutional experience, along with Brady, will carry them.
After that it’s anyone’s guess. Part of me really wants to see a Patrick Mahomes-Lamar Jackson duel for the AFC championship anyway, so it wouldn’t be the end of the world to me if the Patriots can’t get past the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional game.
But then part of me wants to see if Brady has a few more wins in him before he inevitably rides off into the sunset.