A feeling of inevitability hangs over the Lynn political landscape as the last week before Tuesday’s final election winds down.
Thomas M. McGee, the city’s state senator and the son of a local political legend, the late Thomas W. McGee, seems to be making a beeline for the mayor’s office in City Hall and there is little, if any, evidence that Mayor Judith Flanagan Kennedy can stop him.
When McGee scored a commanding win over Kennedy in the Sept. 12 preliminary election, it was easy to put an asterisk by McGee’s name and point out that the popular Democrat hasn’t been in a political street fight, Lynn style, since 2002 when he won the Senate seat.
Kennedy, on the other hand, is Lynn’s embodiment of a guerilla politician. The first woman mayor in the city’s history won her first election to School Committee with a write-in campaign and denied former Mayor Edward “Chip” Clancy Jr. a third term with a similarly audacious campaign.
McGee and Kennedy present sharp contrasts but the 2017 municipal election has never felt like a contest of wills or a blood-sport battle featuring two experienced politicians in a city that feasts on politics. It has felt more like an exercise in succession with a preordained outcome.
Kennedy faces the toughest of challenges in her bid to win a third term.
Although she will tell you the job has been rewarding, the mayor — like her predecessors — seems to have discovered that mayors make more enemies than friends if they stay in office long enough. There is a point — as Kennedy discovered this year — where their administrations can no longer meet city union salary demands.
The public safety workers and educators who protect and teach Lynn residents every day count hundreds of family members and friends in Lynn and they collectively represent a big voting bloc capable of sinking a reelection campaign. Just ask Chip Clancy.
Kennedy also has the misfortune of running against an opponent who has political allies with well-oiled campaign machines.
City Councilor at Large Brian LaPierre stunned local political observers in 2015 with a resounding win running as a first-time candidate.
LaPierre cranked that campaign machine up again this year and voters who hear his campaign positions are sure to draw close comparisons between LaPierre’s and McGee’s perspectives on how to improve the city.
The two candidates enjoy support among local Democrats, labor and community activists — people well versed in getting out the vote. LaPierre finished ahead of the pack in preliminary election voting for councilor at large. He is almost sure to repeat that finish on Tuesday and a strong win will position him well to make post-election political moves.
His Christmas wish list probably includes sticking the title “council president” or “state representative” in front of his name. A McGee win potentially sets him up for the latter and a strong finish next Tuesday supercharges his council clout.
A big win in the final could position LaPierre to anoint himself or colleague Buzzy Barton the next president with Councilor Hong Net; should he be re-elected; at large candidate Brian Field, and even Ward 2 council race favorite Rick Starbard as allies. Depending on the availability of an open state representative seat, LaPierre can potentially tap at-large candidate Taso Nikolakopoulos’ support: If he is a fifth-place finisher, the John’s Roast Beef owner could end up filling an at-large vacancy if LaPierre leaves the council for the State House.
LaPierre’s popularity doesn’t mean he won’t face a battle for the presidency. Ward 3 Councilor and current president Darren Cyr doesn’t back down from a fight and he is sure to survive Tuesday’s voting.
But LaPierre might move quickly to preempt a Cyr presidency by locking down Starbard’s vote and securing ward councilors Peter Capano’s and Jay Walsh’s votes. The pair, like LaPierre, are union activists.
Dianna Chakoutis and Richard Colucci may stay loyal to fellow ward councilor Cyr but an upset in the Ward 1 election could give LaPierre an additional vote.
Ward 1 Councilor Wayne Lozzi is a veteran councilor familiar to his constituents but his tenure saw Union Hospital’s closing announced and the defeat of a school construction referendum that — had it passed — would have saddled Ward 1 — the biggest residential tax base in the city — with more taxes.
Lozzi doesn’t own these problems but opponent Bill O’Shea’s strong preliminary vote tally suggests there is dissatisfaction among Ward 1 voters with the current councilor. Lozzi has won some tough election fights but the voters sometimes go the polls looking to blame the incumbent for their favorite gripe.
The writing isn’t on the wall for Tuesday’s election results but surprises are going to be few and hard to find on election night.