By STEVE KRAUSE
The reverse lock is never far from my mind. For those who don’t know what that is, the best example I can give is the 1969 Super Bowl, where everybody except Joe Namath had the Baltimore Colts winning.
Of course, Namath and the New York Jets won.
I’ve watched enough sports in my life to give even the most seemingly overwhelmed opponent a puncher’s chance. And more often than you think, the puncher either wins or scares the favorite to death in the process of losing.
All of which brings us to the Patriots tonight. They play the Houston Texans, the fourth seed in this year’s playoffs, and nobody gives the Texans a chance. Not EVEN a puncher’s chance.
Now, come talk to me around midnight tonight and we’ll compare notes. It could very well be that the Patriots shrug these Texans off like a pesky mosquito and have the game won by halftime. My inclination is to say “don’t bet on it.” Because I’m one of those people who start in with the “yeah, buts,” and work myself into a nervous frenzy over everything bad that can happen.
I drive people crazy, especially out-of-town people who hate the Patriots. They are always amused by my Nervous Nellying (is that even a word??) for the three-odd hours the Patriots are playing.
It’s unbelievable. An analyst would probably sit me down on the couch and, upon probing, offer the opinion that a lifetime of watching the Red Sox find creative ways to lose has turned me — and I’m sure lots of others — into a hot mess when the Patriots are playing. Or the Bruins. Or the Sox. Or the Celtics. Or Northeastern University basketball and hockey. Or St. John’s Prep anything.
So what about tonight, then? I’ve read all the columns. Seen the Texas called tomato cans. Heard all the analysis about how the Texans might be better not showing up.
I know these columnists, and commentators, are right. The bottom line with any Patriots game, especially at home, is that with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick putting their collective heads and skills together, the combination is a pretty steep obstacle to overcome. They either have to be woefully off their game, or the opposition very much on its game.
The common sense part of me sees no way the Texans can come out ahead. In the first place, Brady is driven, not only to stick it to Roger Goodell and the NFL for the wretchedly excessive way it reacted to the whole “Deflategate” episode, but because he wants Super Bowl ring No. 5. This will not be the day Brady is off his game.
With half of that formula for winning removed, the Texans, then, have to ratchet their game up to heretofore unseen heights just to have a chance. Can they?
Again, the common sense part of me says no. They last time they came up here, with the Patriots down to their third-string quarterback (who was injured for half the game, as it turns out), the Texans couldn’t get out of their own way. What are they going to do with a healthy (well, except for Rob Gronkowski) Patriots team, with Brady?
I know all this. But the spectre of the reverse lock is never far away. There’s always that one time, out of maybe a hundred, when all the planets in the solar system are lined up wrong, and the New York Giants end up beating the 18-0 Patriots; Villanova beats Georgetown and North Carolina State defeats Houston; and the US stuns the Soviet Union.
A Texan victory tonight might not score as high on the sports Richter Scale as some of the aforementioned upsets, but it would be just as improbable. Even taking into account my lifelong paranoia when it comes to heavily-favored teams playing “tomato cans,” I can’t see it. Not gonna happen.
The Patriots will win, and play in the AFC championship game next week for seventh straight season.
Steve Krause can be reached at [email protected].