ITEM PHOTO BY OWEN O’ROURKE
Morning commuters pack a Boston-bound train at Swampscott station.
Fourth in a four-part series
ALSO: You can’t get there from here: Part 1
You can’t get there from here: Part 2
You can’t get there from here: Part 3
If you think your commute is bad now, just wait a few years.
That’s the verdict of a transportation study issued earlier this summer.
Barry Bluestone, professor of public policy at Northeastern University, co-authored “State of the Built Environment,” a study that said an additional 117,000 commuters are expected to hit the region’s roads through 2030.
The 82-page survey reported that 37 percent of the state-owned roads are in fair or poor condition. At the present rate of maintenance, 79 percent of the state’s roads could be in poor to fair condition by 2025.
And it’s not just roads that lead to Boston either. Locally, area residents have to contend with traffic along Route 107.
The state recently issued recommendations to reduce the lane width to 11 feet, the addition of left turn lanes, coordination of traffic signals, a new light at the Eastern Avenue intersection, north and southbound bicycle lanes, consolidation of bus stops that are ADA compliant and new sidewalks and crosswalks.
That plan will not come cheap. The state estimates it will cost more than $26 million to improve the road that links Lynn to Salem.
Bluestone said researchers have no idea how much it will cost to fix the Bay State’s roads and bridges. But one thing is certain: the answer lies in public transportation since no more highways will be built.
“Given the immense amount of highway congestion and the addition of more than 100,000 commuters coming in Greater Boston, there’s no way to solve this problem with more highways,” he said. “The question becomes how can we coax more people to use public transit.”
A follow-up study, expected to be released later this fall, will recommend expanding commuter rail, and new forms of transit that rely on a public-private partnership between regional transit associations, and taxi services such as Uber, Lyft and Bridj, increased ferry service on the North and South shores and improving signaling on the subway lines so the T can double the number of trains to reduce congestion.
“The answer is to put up to 15 percent of commuters into other transit and highway speeds would rise rapidly,” he said.
But paying for it is a completely different challenge.
Bluestone said if the state can convince the public to pony up for public transit because it will benefit drivers who will reach their destination much faster, commuters would be willing to help pay for the public transit that frees up the roads for them.
He also said as property values rise, and they certainly will as transit-oriented development is built, those revenues should be used to pay for the additional transportation. Bluestone calls it “value capture.”
The professor admits that’s a tall order and will require leadership. Bluestone said raising taxes and fees is a political problem.
“Given that the congestion we face is getting worse, the people who should be be fighting for higher fees should be drivers,” he said. “I know it sounds weird. But once they realize how horrendous the roads will get, we can get them to support higher gas taxes. The people who will lead the battle for it are the drivers themselves. People know how dysfunctional the system is.”
Still, without support from Gov. Charlie Baker and Massachusetts House Speaker Robert DeLeo, raising taxes or fees will be a major challenge.
“Maybe in a second term, Baker will get to the point where he says ‘My first priority was to fix a broken system and to make people believe we can run government well … I can’t ask people to pay more if they think taxes are wasted,’
“If we do that, we might get to a position where a sufficient number of people may change their vote on raising revenues,” Bluestone said.
Thomas Grillo can be reached at [email protected].